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[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第3部分 大小球研究-第1章 大小球指数分析--[第三节2(1)]
[复制链接]
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二、波胆赔率分析法下的投注策略' Z7 I e$ D! o+ X
在掌握了利用波胆赔率分析进球数的方法后,可以将这些方法应用于实战中的投注策略。这种以波胆分析为前提的投注策略可以归纳为:进球最小化排除法和即时比分排除法。9 n) R9 I3 @7 k
(一)进球最小化排除法2 h4 N4 ~: t( C+ X; o7 C/ W% E$ @
该方法要点是,通过波胆分析方法,对小球范围内的1-0、0-0、0-1这三种小球比分# E0 {$ t$ i1 B3 f" V! Z
进行排除。得出分析结论后,可以在比赛进行时(走地)双方都无进球状情况下投注大球。如半场0-0时买入全场1.5球或1.75球。举例说明如下:. G( J9 B8 r6 ?
) e; e" ~9 y7 y/ o( |
卡利亚里 2-0 桑普多利亚
k0 ^, v7 B) j* r3 P 比赛时间: 2009年11月08日
9 B3 q7 b2 |. Q7 U; C" i. ?/ v 澳盘初盘: 1.08平手/半球0.780 |7 F$ t+ z3 s. F$ o! x- Z- t6 M
澳盘终盘: 1.07平手/半球0.79% C, `. H5 c* l$ f3 `. T; t- {4 n
" n6 T5 }1 d1 M! B5 p& \ 主队胜波胆赔率 客队胜波胆赔率 平局胜波胆赔率 返还率
/ \0 s* e$ t# k6 X: G. a 赛果 ( _$ g G% g- r1 T
1:0 2:0 2:1 3:0 3:1 3:2 4:0 4:1 4:2 4:3 0:1 0:2 1:2 0:3 1:3 2:3 0:4 1:4 2:4 3:4 0:0 1:1 2:2 3:3 4:4
+ P' H! u1 x" p1 C2 {' m+ D 韦德 9 T3 V" _/ O" J- K9 O
7.5 10 8 23 21 26 81 34 51 8 13 9 41 29 29 81 81 67 9 5.5 15 51 73.28%/ j m9 J9 f( G1 p& h
7.5 10 8 23 21 26 81 34 51 8 13 9 41 29 29 81 81 67 9 5.5 15 51 73.28%+ U/ g }, I% C) r( `" ~) }3 ]; }3 m9 v
威廉希尔 a8 H8 C& t" ]/ g6 N
7 10 8.5 23 19 26 81 34 51 101 8 12 10 34 26 29 101 81 101 101 7.5 6 13 51 101 70.87%, L5 M* k; c4 v9 v4 c( d/ m
7 10 8.5 23 19 26 81 34 51 101 8 13 11 34 26 29 101 81 101 101 8.5 6 13 51 101 72.47%* R/ k# B* o7 h. C
澳门 ! x/ F- ]* ~. P% A
7 11 9 23 19 30 70 30 52 91 8 11 9.5 30 24 30 85 70 105 105 8 5.5 12 63 260 70.65%3 E, j8 D6 V) J0 e& F& B" E
7 11 9 23 19 30 70 30 52 91 8 11 9.5 30 24 30 85 70 105 105 8 5.5 12 63 260 70.65%9 K; t% C, S+ J
立博 1 s4 J- a5 e; ]- u
6 9 9 26 19 26 67 34 51 7 12 11 41 29 29 6 6 15 51 71.29%
7 T! L1 o- t0 u) u4 ^ 6 9 9 26 19 26 67 34 51 7 12 11 41 29 29 6 6 15 51 71.29%- E( T2 _! K0 k0 \* T' N
双方的历史交锋记录中,主队1-0小胜的次数较多,而韦德在1-0的比分上给出的7.5倍赔率,此赔率对于这种打出机会很大的比分而言明显太过于便宜。而在0-0比分上,立博的6倍和韦德的9倍存在很大差异,因此也可以排除。在0-1的比分上,各家公司都一致在这个项目上出现赔率数值的交叉,而该比分并不符合双方实际状况,因此存在被炒作嫌疑,也可做排除考虑。在排除了三种只有1个进球以内的可能性后,那么本场比赛的进球格局就基本清晰了。在实际操作中,如赛前大小球盘口为2.5球,鉴于意甲联赛进球时间都较为迟缓,则可考虑在比赛开始后的走地阶段等到1.5-1.5/2球时入市。这种在排除进球最小化可能的前提下,适时出击大球的方法,不失为一种低风险高回报的投注策略。 |
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