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[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第3部分 大小球研究-第1章 大小球指数分析--[第三节2(1)]
[复制链接]
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二、波胆赔率分析法下的投注策略- j/ d# m& e! w' X) B
在掌握了利用波胆赔率分析进球数的方法后,可以将这些方法应用于实战中的投注策略。这种以波胆分析为前提的投注策略可以归纳为:进球最小化排除法和即时比分排除法。
' p* x. D& A, a8 V2 {# g8 R1 ~4 s (一)进球最小化排除法
8 @: t" j( N5 O# u6 Q! l 该方法要点是,通过波胆分析方法,对小球范围内的1-0、0-0、0-1这三种小球比分
" _- S! l- t: F' g, s) Z5 i E9 y 进行排除。得出分析结论后,可以在比赛进行时(走地)双方都无进球状情况下投注大球。如半场0-0时买入全场1.5球或1.75球。举例说明如下:4 l) Y% k$ }5 P+ p/ h
( U6 A C% ]5 @" n# Z m
卡利亚里 2-0 桑普多利亚
% ]6 _, M0 S/ g6 {1 j 比赛时间: 2009年11月08日+ S D6 ?1 q" ?# s+ C! D( ~
澳盘初盘: 1.08平手/半球0.78
3 D+ e, y3 {- A" y 澳盘终盘: 1.07平手/半球0.79( E9 l- v u4 G
) s( j" s8 }( m# R5 ^+ |1 ]
主队胜波胆赔率 客队胜波胆赔率 平局胜波胆赔率 返还率, n3 U2 i/ Y% z# i/ @$ m
赛果 ! A! y) |. t7 i( _- m& E7 L
1:0 2:0 2:1 3:0 3:1 3:2 4:0 4:1 4:2 4:3 0:1 0:2 1:2 0:3 1:3 2:3 0:4 1:4 2:4 3:4 0:0 1:1 2:2 3:3 4:44 C2 P% q8 i( o9 T( i: i ]' p
韦德
/ }) @* G5 n7 }5 e 7.5 10 8 23 21 26 81 34 51 8 13 9 41 29 29 81 81 67 9 5.5 15 51 73.28%
' f1 G. L& O. ?8 m: s0 @ 7.5 10 8 23 21 26 81 34 51 8 13 9 41 29 29 81 81 67 9 5.5 15 51 73.28%
& F* ~- N$ i6 @. k" v, V 威廉希尔 ( [& t0 p% P$ r! W4 q
7 10 8.5 23 19 26 81 34 51 101 8 12 10 34 26 29 101 81 101 101 7.5 6 13 51 101 70.87%- @; F d5 _5 R5 S" V
7 10 8.5 23 19 26 81 34 51 101 8 13 11 34 26 29 101 81 101 101 8.5 6 13 51 101 72.47%. b7 z; S9 g" X9 H' b" |- z
澳门 ; m( y4 s% f6 Q, |2 j
7 11 9 23 19 30 70 30 52 91 8 11 9.5 30 24 30 85 70 105 105 8 5.5 12 63 260 70.65%9 ~" d$ }0 t6 x- F) f t
7 11 9 23 19 30 70 30 52 91 8 11 9.5 30 24 30 85 70 105 105 8 5.5 12 63 260 70.65%
" I- T3 f. B F3 ~; [" l1 N 立博 % W5 o0 W; O3 f' e* r8 O
6 9 9 26 19 26 67 34 51 7 12 11 41 29 29 6 6 15 51 71.29%7 ^* F, X, x" F9 C, D0 c/ `% a: z3 Z; ?
6 9 9 26 19 26 67 34 51 7 12 11 41 29 29 6 6 15 51 71.29%
9 _) C8 h: v/ R- C+ d$ |: W, K- X2 x 双方的历史交锋记录中,主队1-0小胜的次数较多,而韦德在1-0的比分上给出的7.5倍赔率,此赔率对于这种打出机会很大的比分而言明显太过于便宜。而在0-0比分上,立博的6倍和韦德的9倍存在很大差异,因此也可以排除。在0-1的比分上,各家公司都一致在这个项目上出现赔率数值的交叉,而该比分并不符合双方实际状况,因此存在被炒作嫌疑,也可做排除考虑。在排除了三种只有1个进球以内的可能性后,那么本场比赛的进球格局就基本清晰了。在实际操作中,如赛前大小球盘口为2.5球,鉴于意甲联赛进球时间都较为迟缓,则可考虑在比赛开始后的走地阶段等到1.5-1.5/2球时入市。这种在排除进球最小化可能的前提下,适时出击大球的方法,不失为一种低风险高回报的投注策略。 |
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