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[体育菠菜心得方法] 介绍一个经验赔率公式〔英格兰足球联赛〕及其投注策略
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简介:取球队的近六场净胜球为标准,令R=主队净胜球-客队净胜球
- M: R; K; l9 I) h统计1993/94赛季-2000/01赛季,英格兰足球联赛〔四个级别〕的所有14002场比赛,可得出经验赔率公式:
9 C+ k* ~0 F1 r! `  I主场胜概率y=1.56R+46.47& V9 P1 ^( O' A4 c- e
主场和概率y=0.03R*R-1.27R+23.65
1 \) Y# s( i8 Z( ^# n  g7 O) f主场负概率y=-0.03R*R-0.29R+29.48
8 [) B* d! |, {! X

以本期足彩维冈 VS 纽卡斯尔为例,近六轮维冈净胜球为2,纽卡为0,则R=2# u% T: H; {1 r4 K6 K
得到胜负平概率 49.59 21.23 28.78% A* Y# x. d/ ^3 ^
以90返还率计算,得到赔率 1.815/ 4.239/ 3.127 对比开盘赔率,可看出,主队被严重低估; G: M5 H* o% R) Y* N0 y6 S6 z
威廉希尔 interwetten 立博 SSP + W6 W  p4 B7 [
2.62 2.90 2.50 2.50 3.00 2.50 2.50 3.20 2.50 2.26 3.26 2.84

这个公式经过2001/02赛季,英格兰足球联赛〔四个级别〕的所有1746场比赛比赛验证,可得出获利的结果。

再介绍根据这个公式的博彩策略:以计算出的主胜概率为基准,若实际开盘概率低〔即球队实力被低估〕,则投注于主胜的标盘一个单位〔即均注〕.01-02赛季1746场比赛,共有526场符合投注条件,可获利2.15%。若选择R在-5到5之间的比赛,则可选择330场,获利5.35%;R在-2到2,171场,获利10.13%;R在-10到10,获利3.56%。

显然,R范围越小,该公式越精确。推荐使用范围为-5到5。不奢望有心人总结出意/德/西/法等国的规律,只希望有人会长期跟踪这个公式。

ps:国外投资者研究投注策略,按照一定标准选择比赛,并全部投注,扣除抽水,存取款,所得税〔如果有〕,获利为正值,即认为是成功的博彩策略。3 d/ F/ S9 N+ T6 V# N3 s# }1 F) c

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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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