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[体育菠菜心得方法] 【转帖】博球论系列(二)博彩公司是否会操纵比赛
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1#
  博球论系列(一)给大家分析过博彩公司对于操纵比赛结果的行为什么痛恨,因为操纵比赛结果的人最终会把手伸向博彩公司,赢哪些下注的个体赌球者的钱是远远不能够满足哪些操纵比赛的人的胃口的,只有从博彩公司手里面赢钱才使得操纵比赛变得有利可图。但是我们换一个角度:假若博彩公司自己操纵比赛,那情况又如何呢?
: I* L" _* d( Q) ]6 a  博球论系列告诉打击博彩公司要操纵一场比赛,首先要花一大笔钱去买通比赛的双方(至少是一方),然后把巨额注码砸向其它博彩公司,并同时诱杀彩民(与赛果不符)的投注,这很自然地带来两方面的问题。
( A5 x2 o. z% }! H( ~5 u  问题一:把巨额注码砸向其它博彩公司,这和我们在前面(博球论之一)所说的假球没有任何区别,何况任何博彩公司都可以(也完全有能力)这样做,这无异于自相残杀,会直接导致全世界足球博彩市场的崩溃。博彩公司不会这么笨,因为大家这样搞下去只会让被买通(打假球)的人得到好处,被买通(打假球)的人还可以去博彩公司投注呢!1 K( V; k& A. L" j8 D/ T* W" g8 G
  问题二:诱杀彩民的投注,那当然好,但你(博彩公司)又怎么知道彩民会集中投注哪一种结果(假若投注量很均衡)呢?最重要的是有多大的投注量(假若投注这场比赛的人很少尤其是钱很少)呢?值得你花那么多钱去操纵比赛吗?你不会把全球的赛事都操纵了吧?8 K0 W6 w. A9 k9 ], e2 y7 ~
  有一部分波友在赢钱的时候认为自己运气好(或水平高),输钱时就说博彩公司操纵比赛(打假球),或者说每一场比赛结果都是赛前双方商量好了的,再有就是轻信目前流传的"欧洲大牌俱乐部开支太庞大,动辙上亿欧元买球员,支付球员的年薪也是很大一笔钱,根本无法维持,一定有博彩公司在背后支持,这些俱乐部的比赛肯定会受到博彩公司的干涉".对于彩民(和投注者),如果你准备远离博球,洗手不干了,那么上面的说法对你而言最具有说服力,只要你相信上面的说法,就根本没有沾球的必要了,我无话可说,也不想再把你拖进苦海;但如果你还想继续玩下去,存有这样的心态非常不好,对今后的博球和投注有百害无一利.因为俱乐部的收入包括门票,出售球员,赛场广告,球衣广告,电视转播费,出场费,比赛奖金,球衣或纪念品等,我们不清楚它们的具体收支情况,也就不可能知道它们是盈利还是亏损,就不要作这种完全不负责任的推断,更何况足球俱乐部本身也属于市场经济主体范畴,盈利或者亏损都是相当正常的事情,而一些博彩公司现在公开赞助俱乐部(AC米兰,皇马,热刺,塞维利亚,巴伦西亚,西汉姆联,维根,热那亚等球队),把自己的广告直接打在球衣上和足球场周围,是不是意味着足球正走向毁灭呢?.而"每一场比赛结果都是赛前双方商量好"的说法,我想请问:"双方商量比赛结果的时候您在现场吗?"
" q# ^! z$ Y3 u; C2 g7 u3 H6 i5 I  需要澄清的是:国际足联和欧洲足联一直在跟大型博彩公司联合防范并打击假球,对于具体的一场比赛,开出赔率的博彩公司很多(达到100家左右或者更多),说明这场比赛受操纵的可能性非常小,在投注的时候,我们彩民大可不必担心.如果过多地考虑假球,草木皆兵,就会方寸大乱,严重影响自己的分析和思路.
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感谢楼主分享,学习了!
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感谢楼主的文章,辛苦了
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4#
感谢转账。。
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