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[体育菠菜心得方法] 体育博彩中的相似盘口赔率应该如何进行分析(2)
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莫尔德 VS 阿勒桑(2:2)
$ f1 N4 C; E1 x; z8 C/ ~9 v$ M! }6 f) S8 c6 P
SSP1.79 3.57 3.57,
2 D: x+ [: H4 F威廉1.90 3.20 3.50,
8 y* V4 ~. E. x立博1.91 3.30 4.00, & \) z2 q7 j3 @. n! ]
伟德2.00 3.25 3.25—1.90 3.25 3.50,
% R. P7 L, f& [1 O7 K1 S* bInterwetten1.85 3.20 3.50, 7 e5 u3 E( F6 k4 ?8 o
BET365:2.10 3.29 3.29,   f9 E6 m% f. K2 l7 h; ?7 O9 X
易胜博2.00 3.20 3.10—2.05 3.20 3.00, 8 ]/ A; H4 K7 |  m# J
Unibet2.15 3.30 3.25—2.10 3.30 3.40, , T* Z) w/ r& Y2 [' n1 r* t
Coral2.00 3.20 3.20, ! G: W* w& ]+ k* O/ U3 |% @
PLAYIT2.10 3.35 3.25—2.00 3.35 3.50,
* V3 A% ?' s' E2 o% Q1 QNordicbet1.95 3.35 4.00, + K; u+ j" E; T2 [) ^; @
Norway1.85 3.30 3.00
  z) T0 h' G+ l8 v平均1.99 3.31 3.49
# V6 M& T* g/ N; P: i) h澳门初盘0.825平/半1.025,现已经升到半球高水,
; M, Z' q" r( u0 |' j: D立博0.76平/半1.08
1 \( [. P! J3 d3 w; u莫尔德排名12,今年前6轮4负2胜,这2胜是近2轮的,上轮客3:2胜维京暴出大冷,走势为高,而阿勒桑今年是1胜1平4负,上轮竟然主场0:1负特罗姆瑟已经降之榜尾,历史对阵阿勒桑1:1平莫尔德,客场有3:2战胜莫尔德的战绩,竟然不落下风,这是基本面的东西。
# j# ]; z* m2 v# d+ i7 Q* L0 r4 I* K( ]5 }" g1 j; G- k/ u# A
我们看到主胜的赔率从Norway的1.85到威廉的1.90和立博的1.91,Nordicbet的1.95到伟德的2.00,易胜博,Coral的2.00,到BET365的2.10,Unibet的2.15幽默的阶梯之状。# o& O/ c" w( h# M
: u( |9 G6 c; B, p3 I7 q
阿勒桑客胜倒是自3.00(易胜博变盘最低)---3.20—3.25—3.29—3.50直到立博的4.00(表达了不看好客胜的态度)不一而足。平局却异常集中在3.20---3.35这样一个狭小的区域,其中威廉平局最低为3.20。9 l1 F7 R# \% O8 ?: l, I: C. w5 j

' f( F0 Q- a2 e; x  s8 d" o1 c我们发现主流威廉立博主胜为1.90是比较低的,而返还率差不多的Interwetten,Norway都是1.85,鉴于客队历史占优,多轮不胜,这样的赔率只能说是正常的,SSP为1.79外其它公司主胜均在主流威廉立博之上,难道小公司都是傻瓜,即使迷惑在上轮巨大的反差下,主胜也是阻不住的,并且它们还开出了客胜赔率低于平局赔率的奇异赔率,BET365和Unibet的仍然为2.10,并且BET365的客胜为3.29放在客胜心理 3.30界线上,Unibet客胜3.25也是如此,易胜博初盘3.10,变盘3.10降为3.00,主胜增加0.05,这样势必会造成客胜的幻想,在上轮巨大的反差下,我想阿勒桑即使历史占优,终不会是其客胜吧,但博彩公司为什么有如此举动呢?
6 w6 f- c5 n# H  v5 P9 R
" z6 M3 ?0 J- [: [9 o0 s1 y1 j2 q再看SSP的1.79,看到上面的情况,玩串的看到本土的Norway为1.85,SSP的1.79会坚定一部分看好主胜者的信心,对其怀疑者感到主胜赔付低者看到Norway的平局3.30,客胜为3.00,高达3.57的平赔也会让人望而却步,而3.57的客胜比威廉的赔付相差无几,也不会有很大的心理压力,我想SSP是倾向于平局赛果的。
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1 c6 @# g" z  W我想提一点的是英国的彩民看到威廉的1.90 3.20 3.50,客胜仅比平局多3个百分点的确透露了客胜的担忧,那么立博平赔比威廉多0.1达到3.30跟本土Norway相同提高,表达了不看好平局的态度,看到Norway的3.00,立博的4.00也是有诱惑力的,我想立博一定是靠收主胜和负赔来平衡中间的3.30(并且一定是起了高阻的作用)。( T; T! F% W7 b& D0 R

- H4 |8 t+ A$ K4 B- x4 R% @& `所以我倾向于SSP的态度,平局。
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2#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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3#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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楼主心得分享了。。
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