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[虚拟币交流]
比特币能否再创历史新高山寨币牛市来袭 你的下一个百倍币找到了吗（转）
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在200日均线整固一周多后，比特币终于突破65,000美元，结束了半年的震荡下跌。比特币接近62,500美元的短期持有者均价线，反弹与BlackRock的资金流入有关。最新数据显示，BlackRock流入2,867枚比特币，抵消了其他ETF的流出。现货ETF持续大额流入，Cryptocond CEO表示，美国投资者的比特币持有量正重新占据主导地位。
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+ @& s$ x6 K5 l尽管9月7日曾有8天的资金流出，但随后大部分交易日保持资金流入。今天是周六，9月份即将结束，有580亿美元的比特币期权到期交割，预计将引发价格波动。关键支撑在59,000美元，卖方可能试图压低价格以减少损失。昨日，美国二季度GDP修正数据符合预期，为比特币上涨提供支持。0 u: A8 k- K4 y$ U
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过去一周，比特币在短期持有者均价线以上波动，但仍低于200日移动平均线，令期货市场参与者感到不安。市场面临向上突破65,000美元，迈向70,000美元，或跌破62,500美元，测试60,000-62,000美元支撑区的选择。最终，比特币选择了向上拉升。
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$ G5 b$ E0 ?) Y0 [BlackRock的资金流入恢复被视为积极信号，尽管其他现货ETF出现资金流出，但BlackRock的流入足以覆盖。昨日比特币未跌破62,500美元，避免了短期持有者陷入亏损并引发恐慌性抛售，这是我们希望看到的。3 O0 |6 u* H. K
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推动比特币牛市的关键在于短期持有者成本线的支持。过去一年多，该线一直有效支撑比特币价格，尽管在2021年牛市结束后转为阻力。此外，全球流动性对比特币的影响不容忽视。Lin Alldon的报告显示，比特币与全球流动性的相关性高达83%，货币供应增加时比特币价格上涨的概率很高。
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. E/ o; V) E4 h6 T2 }+ G在主要央行降息并向市场注入流动性的背景下，夏季的低迷即将结束。FTX预计下月偿还债权人，部分资金将流入加密市场，对比特币也是积极的。历史数据显示，美国大选往往引发市场上涨，结合当前动态，我对第四季度走势持更乐观态度。
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% S7 ~! @) h5 m4 w6 Y以2024年为基准，比特币市场结构明显变化。比特币从技术先驱和少数鲸鱼的专属资产，逐渐吸引更多资本，尤其是大型金融机构的参与，尤其通过现货ETF重塑市场格局。然而，经济学家警告，美国经济衰退可能导致市场崩溃，消费者信心指数大幅下滑，预示经济将进入衰退。尽管近期GDP符合预期，缓解了一些忧虑，但美联储的降息预期仍在，市场预计将有更多流动性注入，包括美财政部可能的大规模国债发行。( X5 c) V# r- n# J
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量化宽松（QE）的回归将大幅增加市场流动性，明显利好比特币，尽管短期内可能推高通胀。美元购买力持续下降，过去20年已失去78%的价值，而比特币却在上涨。从中长期来看，比特币是抗通胀的手段之一。
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$ E0 ~ j. W9 _" w1 D* t* TBlackRock的比特币现货ETF获批后，更多机构将进入市场，进一步推动比特币扩张。经过长时间盘整，比特币在合理估值范围内获得支撑，未来可能会迎来下一波牛市。目前，出售风险比率指标显示，市场上愿意出售比特币的人不多。尽管比特币未能突破65,000美元，但接近70,000美元时行情将发生质变。我们需耐心持有，等待明年合适的时机。
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