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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准,只统计 英超,西甲,意甲 % D0 M/ G0 P8 R0 h

$ s6 h3 ]4 }9 s: ~3 e
0 X% x$ k! a: R" b% k  L只跟踪一个联赛! x0 A# ^$ ?0 l6 a1 s: z

8 {1 r) O5 _$ @- C& [5 z7 Z) ^6 q6 \2 I0 S7 c9 S8 D0 d3 D
全塞季  分别买 主胜,  平,   负赔
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三条线  ,三年统计结果  全部亏水钱,积少成多也不少啊 ,最后收益差别不大,
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。1 u6 ^* I7 v3 d: D! L; E8 r

+ f" v& E; d" B# ?6 i3 Z方法:  全程跟踪一个联赛,一个塞季, 只买一边, 主胜 或负赔(平局出现相对概率要少)
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$ N1 a; s" b4 A" h2 }; Y然后通过基本面或盘赔特征,排除一部分球赛, 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高, 只需要增高一点,$ N' ]8 F2 t) v: y: z
* @6 ^2 C% d: `
就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱,  然后就是不断累积经验,多排除一些球赛,多赚一点水钱( o4 o- f2 h5 p, j

; E) T3 n  {3 @+ A$ ?4 D当经验积累到一定程度, 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目' u4 u8 j1 N$ b* j
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5 ]- V8 ]' x) N" ]2 o6 ^3 C6 ?  H亚盘没有统计,想当然,  低水胜出概率高点,  让盘方胜出概率高点,只有两个方向容易判断,$ J; V- ?$ H8 N2 e* @* r
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点, 选低水+让球方,一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪,开始肯定输水钱,
* j  j) U0 v+ R' e4 z/ G  {: P6 {1 T3 _2 T3 t' J/ ^
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了,就可以把水钱赚回来。* D. B8 V2 i2 j5 Z8 b3 s( N8 A

6 O% [# ~% [$ u9 p5 B2 o* Q- Z- k* ~6 l8 z

! q& ]% x; [, [+ E  O理论依据: 只买一边 ,一定不会让你亏多少,因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的,一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
$ M8 C3 r: U  Y6 A/ v
/ C/ y% V: I, p+ G+ {排除比选择要容易积累经验, 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ,比那些可能出现 要容易判断
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以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的,
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/ b: m" o1 ?' {2 p但是每个赛季 5-10%, 是可以做到的,
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. L5 L) ]' R! P6 c$ g这比买国债存银行合算。3 S& r2 l1 p$ _6 A5 E1 X9 S
8 @) `: C7 I/ c3 r: x8 K
在DC赚大钱的人,都是用高风险去博高收益,风险大利润才高,
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几次发现十几倍的负赔,就是不敢去,买了平,这就是人性。( T7 n5 K, G" s3 x: F

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+ K' r; ?, D6 X0 G& r. a3 V! E5 @: S常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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- W' J' i6 l. E0 S! R! h放弃一夜暴富,放弃神奇的方法, 放弃高的胜率,* w) v6 S$ V) ]8 t, e
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就是回避了大的亏损,9 Q9 W( h( s+ w  F

% F/ |/ m, ]( U- n大亏,小亏,小赢,大赢,  DC就这四种结果," ]" Q' W: t6 S% d' m$ [

) A2 i9 X& x% ^2 K回避了大亏,用经验避免小亏,就只剩下 赢了。
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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
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