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[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第3部分 大小球研究-第1章 大小球指数分析--[第三节2(2)]
[复制链接]
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(二)即时比分排除法
( v6 b# x) d7 r7 g 此方法是赛前通过波胆赔率分析,将符合条件的比分事先排列出来,然后在出现进球后,在合适的盘口下再择机投注大球的一种方法。举例如下:5 m2 a7 t* c6 s% g& q
, F$ ?9 s* J% }& M# l3 z; g( r 巴素利 4-1 纳沙泰尔(瑞士超)0 P, J. t8 \ x7 ~0 d5 Z' S
比赛时间: 2009年11月10日
7 G$ l8 Q6 L1 _+ S, A1 ]" D( M7 u 澳彩初盘: 1.02一球0.78
( K& A- O. s W. j% j 澳彩终盘: 0.88一球0.921 w1 w- @9 t; W
4 {* I1 _6 n0 J; u& P, w# H* Z 主队胜波胆赔率 客队胜波胆赔率 平局胜波胆赔率 返还率 k& e) {! ]8 @; _7 @
赛果 + l& c; {( M& N5 D. d# A
1:0 2:0 2:1 3:0 3:1 3:2 4:0 4:1 4:2 4:3 0:1 0:2 1:2 0:3 1:3 2:3 0:4 1:4 2:4 3:4 0:0 1:1 2:2 3:3 4:4
- J7 [* r8 [3 _5 Y8 d$ ~ 韦德 7 `( d3 x) v: g6 Q
8 7 7.5 10 9.5 26 21 17 34 12 29 17 81 41 34 101 101 101 11 7 13 41 72.68%
5 S! y! p/ J/ Q6 o0 M9 {( \ 8 7 7.5 10 9.5 26 21 17 34 12 29 17 81 41 34 101 101 101 11 7 13 41 72.68%
5 ]# ]! @) q* o0 I# C 威廉希尔
$ K( U4 r) @* q) w$ z 6 6 7.5 11 10 26 23 21 51 81 13 34 19 101 67 51 101 101 101 101 10 7 15 67 101 73.36%
. e1 `- W- G. |, v 6 6 7.5 11 10 26 23 21 51 81 13 34 19 101 67 51 101 101 101 101 10 7 15 67 101 73.36%$ L2 T/ }0 C# y0 f
澳门
; R( h3 @3 \2 g 6.5 6 8 10 11 27 21 19 43 53 11 30 20 101 81 68 101 101 101 101 11 7 15 62 201 70.82%
6 t' r6 `$ w" e; l3 K 6.5 6 8 10 11 30 21 23 43 53 1 30 20 101 81 68 101 101 101 101 11 7 15 68 201 70.82%
3 _1 u8 l* ^' f# \8 Z 立博
& c' E5 v% `: ] 7 7 8 9 10 26 19 19 41 12 26 23 51 51 13 7 17 67 74.10%5 ~7 z2 B2 v" ~4 f
7 7 8 9 10 26 19 19 41 12 26 23 51 51 13 7 21 67 74.10%
! R" E1 x; u* Q 虽然主客双方联赛排名接近,但是主队的整体实力和近期表现都要强于客队。在此背景下,客胜赔率虽然也存在交叉,但是较高的赔率数值与基本面较为吻合,也就是说客队缺乏爆冷赢球的可能性。那么具备条件的可能比分应为:2-0、2-1、3-0、3-1、1-1、2-2。0 ~! ~, I9 o3 O; Q' H4 Q
比赛进行到39分钟时双方还都均无建树,此时走地大球盘口从临场的3/3.5球降为2.5/3球。在排除了三种小球(1-0、0-0、0-1)可能的前提下,在符合条件的比分中最小值为2-0和1-1,那么本场的投注安全临界点应为2球。但是当盘口给到2.5/3球时,此时走地让球盘激烈震荡,大小球水位也不断变化调整,以笔者的经验,这种情况不是市场上交易异常活跃、就是比赛场面激烈火爆,短时间内出现进球的概率极大。因此,本着输半博全的考虑,在2.5/3球高水时实施投注(不应提倡那些在35分钟后投注半场进球的“博秒”玩法)。不出所料,在45+上半场接近尾声时主队破门得分。主队1-0领先后,大球盘口迅速调整为3.5/4球,参考赛前盘口,扣减1个进球后,实际上等于给出的还是2.5/3球,也就是说出现1个进球后,大球盘与进球前的2.5/3球还是保持一致,以这种情况有经验的玩家都会判断出下半场至少还有2个进球的可能。
# G2 Z& [! [& @6 T% n! _ 比赛进行到下半场第55分钟时,客队进球扳平比分。此时观察1-1的赔率值,各家公司在该比分上的赔率完全交叉,根据前面方法中的定义,存在多家炒作该比分的可能,因此这个比分不能成立,况且距离比赛结束还有将近35分钟的时间。在排除1-1的可能后,笔者在大球盘开到3球中水时,做出了再次投入的决定。此后,1-1的比分维持到下半场第68分钟时,主队再次反超,比分改写为2-1。此时,赛前所设出的比分中就只剩下了3-1最后一项。再检查自己的投资情况,最早投入的2.5/3球已经获得一半利润、追加投入的3球也是坐和望赢状态,在这种对自己较为有利的格局下,笔者再次对2-1比分的赔率进行了分析。在2-1的赔率值中,存在着韦德和威廉希尔的7.5倍与澳彩和立博的8倍两组赔率;如果向更大比分发展就是3-1、4-1的比分,而在这两组比分中,韦德3-1的9.5倍和4-1的17倍在各家中最低;这既受到最小赔率法的支持、同时也可以看出韦德对比分的更大化早就做出了防备;因此,在第75分钟左右、大球盘为3.5球高水时,笔者再次出击3.5球(用投注2.5/3球所获利润)。就在比赛即将进入补时阶段时,主队竟然在第89至90分钟时连续打进两球,两个神奇的秒杀球最终将比分定格在4-1。 |
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