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[体育菠菜心得方法] 体育博彩中的相似盘口赔率应该如何进行分析(2)
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莫尔德 VS 阿勒桑(2:2)4 h4 V1 j& ]& s" H. T9 G8 Q  g
7 s+ e. b9 `4 Y$ p4 f2 l
SSP1.79 3.57 3.57, 0 |  @! K6 L  O9 b; r" ?( n7 L+ L% ?3 [
威廉1.90 3.20 3.50,   x% B, Z2 _, H: ]% l: L1 M' ^) N9 S
立博1.91 3.30 4.00,
2 M3 o9 O! Z( j  x伟德2.00 3.25 3.25—1.90 3.25 3.50,
1 f; A0 S/ u% Q# qInterwetten1.85 3.20 3.50, 4 x' o( R8 [* B# M% A+ I# L+ V
BET365:2.10 3.29 3.29,
9 q% v( a3 o6 q2 Z易胜博2.00 3.20 3.10—2.05 3.20 3.00, & b- s& H' d" _0 h7 b
Unibet2.15 3.30 3.25—2.10 3.30 3.40, 0 c" y: `% i4 `, g5 F+ s
Coral2.00 3.20 3.20,
4 }: t5 S1 m- f0 U' t4 S8 nPLAYIT2.10 3.35 3.25—2.00 3.35 3.50,
3 h9 ^' f" c( I1 uNordicbet1.95 3.35 4.00, / |5 w: N6 s; O! D# c6 M
Norway1.85 3.30 3.00 3 f0 J9 \0 z2 [* Y% _
平均1.99 3.31 3.49 6 h1 }# Z5 w" B
澳门初盘0.825平/半1.025,现已经升到半球高水,
( V& D% J- c3 s' g4 _" ?立博0.76平/半1.088 I2 A8 G. r' m# O, e7 v
莫尔德排名12,今年前6轮4负2胜,这2胜是近2轮的,上轮客3:2胜维京暴出大冷,走势为高,而阿勒桑今年是1胜1平4负,上轮竟然主场0:1负特罗姆瑟已经降之榜尾,历史对阵阿勒桑1:1平莫尔德,客场有3:2战胜莫尔德的战绩,竟然不落下风,这是基本面的东西。
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6 X) y9 t. i- V" X, j我们看到主胜的赔率从Norway的1.85到威廉的1.90和立博的1.91,Nordicbet的1.95到伟德的2.00,易胜博,Coral的2.00,到BET365的2.10,Unibet的2.15幽默的阶梯之状。1 l+ F  c9 t; ]& }1 f

5 _1 p/ N8 l0 j" w阿勒桑客胜倒是自3.00(易胜博变盘最低)---3.20—3.25—3.29—3.50直到立博的4.00(表达了不看好客胜的态度)不一而足。平局却异常集中在3.20---3.35这样一个狭小的区域,其中威廉平局最低为3.20。
! o( ^* m7 x2 t& x1 q) a7 U1 V7 Q, [/ C/ k8 b
我们发现主流威廉立博主胜为1.90是比较低的,而返还率差不多的Interwetten,Norway都是1.85,鉴于客队历史占优,多轮不胜,这样的赔率只能说是正常的,SSP为1.79外其它公司主胜均在主流威廉立博之上,难道小公司都是傻瓜,即使迷惑在上轮巨大的反差下,主胜也是阻不住的,并且它们还开出了客胜赔率低于平局赔率的奇异赔率,BET365和Unibet的仍然为2.10,并且BET365的客胜为3.29放在客胜心理 3.30界线上,Unibet客胜3.25也是如此,易胜博初盘3.10,变盘3.10降为3.00,主胜增加0.05,这样势必会造成客胜的幻想,在上轮巨大的反差下,我想阿勒桑即使历史占优,终不会是其客胜吧,但博彩公司为什么有如此举动呢?
- t4 j6 G- [& ?% U( r0 R+ t* U" `* Y" b: y" s7 h* Q0 B8 B
再看SSP的1.79,看到上面的情况,玩串的看到本土的Norway为1.85,SSP的1.79会坚定一部分看好主胜者的信心,对其怀疑者感到主胜赔付低者看到Norway的平局3.30,客胜为3.00,高达3.57的平赔也会让人望而却步,而3.57的客胜比威廉的赔付相差无几,也不会有很大的心理压力,我想SSP是倾向于平局赛果的。0 d8 v1 {% K- V3 K* Z" D' U, e

* h1 |+ }$ Q1 |0 b% R$ |: F我想提一点的是英国的彩民看到威廉的1.90 3.20 3.50,客胜仅比平局多3个百分点的确透露了客胜的担忧,那么立博平赔比威廉多0.1达到3.30跟本土Norway相同提高,表达了不看好平局的态度,看到Norway的3.00,立博的4.00也是有诱惑力的,我想立博一定是靠收主胜和负赔来平衡中间的3.30(并且一定是起了高阻的作用)。
4 I& u# F- D2 Y; @/ v" i) W/ H
0 I+ U) N# V% H所以我倾向于SSP的态度,平局。
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2#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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谢谢分享,进来学习!
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楼主心得分享了。。
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