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[font=SimSun]有些比赛庄家开盘是有很大困难的，比如两支排名相近的球队，主队近况好，客队近况差，这种比赛大众的投注心理从总体上是偏向状态好的主队的，而无论庄家开什么盘，半球、半球/一球、一球…都基本无法避免主队偏热的情况。从最近的比赛看，庄家有时会采取主动给近况不佳的客队大幅降水（尤其在比赛开始前的半个小时左右），给投注主队的玩家制造心理压力，从而在开场前的足彩投注高峰期内，让原来不被大众看好的客队变成投注热门。然而，比赛结果却并不象之前双方水位的变化那样充满玄机，主队仍然轻松胜出。/ X2 C" h0 {1 `8 p/ r
2006年10月13日凌晨瑞典甲辛斯华尔主场对阵华斯比的比赛就是一个很好的例子，主队辛斯华尔无论从排名还是状态上都优于客队华斯比，而且由于这是一场提前进行的保级战，主队的战意也不用怀疑。各大博彩公司开出的初盘基本都是辛斯华尔让半/一低水。这是一个中庸的盘口，不浅也不深，从大众的投注心理来看，显然辛斯华尔会更受欢迎一些。初盘开出后，辛斯华尔的水位确实开始缓慢而连续地下降，从1.875附近下降到1.825，与我先前的预测一致，辛斯华尔的确更受欢迎一些。照这样的趋势，到开赛前，辛斯华尔一定会因低水位而被看作是安全的象征，从而成为大众首选。然而庄家此后却做了一件很奇怪的事，在比赛开始前的7小时，突然大幅上调了主队辛斯华尔的水位，从之前一路下滑的1.825骤然猛升到2.00以上…这是一个很奇怪的举动，似乎暗示了庄家从某种渠道得到了辛斯华尔本场难以取胜的消息…真是这样吗？其实动动脑子就能发现其中的玄机：本来卖的好好的辛斯华尔，为什么会在一个投注量非常少的冷门时段，大幅升水呢？升水带来的不是安全感，而是危机感，事实上确有很多原来想买辛斯华尔的玩家看到辛斯华尔水位急升，不敢投或者改投对面了。庄家如果真不看好辛斯华尔，那么最好的操盘方法就是顺其自然，而不是这样欲盖弥彰的大幅升水。比赛前的一个小时，庄家更是变本加厉，继续升辛斯华尔的水位，最后在比赛前几分钟，在上盘客的极度恐慌中，辛斯华尔到了1.10的顶水附近，似乎完全没有获胜的希望了。[/font] |
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