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[体育菠菜心得方法] 体育博彩中的相似盘口赔率应该如何进行分析(1)
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有时,同轮联赛我们会碰到一些相似的对阵盘口,细心琢磨,会有迎刃通竹节之快!: W% @# q! _0 w0 ~( s8 Z# t
: F6 B% e- o4 S- h, @
布兰 VS 利勒斯特罗姆(6:2)
" L* A$ U! V1 W3 n. Q0 F) D: I9 o% o9 V/ N% a
SSP1.79 3.57 3.57,
: G' X( f3 ?) j6 q威廉1.90 3.25 3.40,
! W/ g( u* r0 L立博1.91 3.30 4.00,
$ C! t/ b4 t7 t/ T伟德1.85 3.25 3.75,
( V- Z4 \" w1 H  T. XInterwetten2.10 3.10 3.00---2.00 3.10 3.20,
' }+ g, h- X4 D( q. ]BET365:1.90 3.29 4.00---2.00 3.29 3.75, 8 x% ~/ p! ~% o5 g2 a
易胜博1.91 3.10 3.50, # v# s* L8 Q5 M1 P; M+ s8 E
Unibet2.10 3.30 3.40---2.05 3.30 3.50, ) c0 F5 Q! u* J# g  D
Coral1.91 3.25 3.40, # P6 ~: @" c8 c+ Z9 V
PLAYIT1.90 3.45 3.75,
/ J5 `/ }; z# }Nordicbet2.05 3.25 3.75, 3 J2 [, `$ j8 f. J& s( C
Norway1.85 3.30 3.00
8 J" |) G2 r$ Q& p. ]* M平均1.93 3.29 3.50 2 [8 e/ y6 D' r. J% l1 h$ z
澳门初盘0.975半球0.875,现半球高水, 0 ^5 c0 x+ s1 k6 R5 i3 Y: x0 M, l
立博1.00半球0.84,
3 O; W2 U+ O& v( v! W8 V; Y5 p易胜博0.95半球0.900 X+ E5 E9 B9 D" D7 |. F
呵呵这场竟然跟本轮莫尔德 VS 阿勒桑如此之相象(附在下面),SSP,立博和本土的Norway两场赔率相同,威廉只是在平赔和客胜上做了微小的差异。亚盘都是半球高水,有相似之处,赛果会一样么?) v5 _3 x- j- Y( \; b+ {1 Z

/ D! o6 x# P2 e0 T白蘭恩排名第3,利尼史特朗排名第4,二者积分同为10分,排名相近,6轮下来都是3胜1平2负。白蘭恩上轮客场联赛3:2胜了費德列斯,但是紧接着12号的赛事杯上主场0:1负哥登堡,如果算是主场成绩的话就是1胜1平2负了,而利尼史特朗刚刚主场1:0胜汉坎,最近6轮客场是2负1胜,上个客场终于取得首胜:2:0胜奥德格陵兰。& f: N3 w! t2 N. B( f) F: @+ U! x
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再看最近的4次历史对阵,利尼史特朗2:2白蘭恩,白蘭恩1:5利尼史特朗,白蘭恩1:3利尼史特朗,利尼史特朗0:0白蘭恩,白蘭恩最近历史主场竟然2次均大比分输给了利尼史特朗。我们发现主队较客队的情况是不太有利的,以上基本面的东西几极可能被博彩公司拿来作为题材。& J; p6 M5 F7 E$ ]$ x# x
* N3 \  Y9 O$ N- ?
我们看到主胜的赔率从本土Norway以及英国伟德的1.85到威廉、BET365 、PLAYIT的1.90和立博、易胜博、Coral的1.91,Nordicbet的2.05到,Interwetten的2.10(变盘 2.00),Unibet2.10(变盘2.05)后来均没有超过2.10,这兴许是看好主队的表现。- T/ _0 g( x6 o* [* ]2 `0 S

' N0 e9 {: }/ X1 O( G* L2 c利尼史特朗客胜倒是3.40 3.50 3.75这几个敏感数字上,直到立博的4.00(表面上表达了不看好客胜的态度)。平局也是集中在3.20---3.35这样一个狭小的区域,其中Interwetten,易胜博平局最低为3.10。
* Z( J0 ?: e# Q, {1 r
+ S( R% y4 t6 U) G3 D( y, y; k" v; k我们发现主流威廉立博主胜为1.90是比较低的,根据基本面的情况这也的确是略微看好主队的表现,但是没有象返还率90的伟德那样直接(1.85),鉴于客队历史战绩2次大比分战胜主队,那么3.40,3.50,3.75,4.00的客胜是非常有吸引力的赔率,SSP的3.57也是,并且主胜为高的Interwetten2.10 3.10 3.00---2.00 3.10 3.20变盘客胜自3.00至3.20验证了我的考虑,SSP主胜的1.79依然没有其他公司的主胜有油水,在主队处于似赢非赢的景况下尤其如此,当然会坚定一部分本来看好主队的投注者,那么我们只要弄明白SSP这个3.57平赔的用意,问题相信会迎刃而解了。
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/ s% L/ o* A* ]3 r在基本面的前提下,比较一下本场和莫尔德 VS 阿勒桑Interwetten,Nordicbet的平赔就可以了,这几个公司相比之下皆表示了对平局的担忧,这种情况下威廉还比上一场多给0.05的平局赔付,它们的动机已经非常清楚。/ o  e  p. ~3 a# Q: u4 i

& m) F* c! b/ p# T5 U8 j; y通过上面的例子,我们更能领会博彩公司极少有慈悲心肠,该给的不给,不该给的又诱惑你,可恶之极!这种战例也告诉我们,分析赔率一定要就事论事,历史统计只能作为锻炼自身的一种磨砺,脱离赛事就会脱离本质,要知道,水是往低处走,但是流动的!
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2#
可以说清楚点吗?
avatar
3#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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4#
谢谢分享,进来学习!
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