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[lastpost] => 2680214 胜率高达90%!以太坊波段巨鲸斩获八连胜,累计盈利超340万美金! 1727628731 天策-瑶娥
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币能否再创历史新高山寨币牛市来袭 你的下一个百倍币找到了吗(转)
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在200日均线整固一周多后,比特币终于突破65,000美元,结束了半年的震荡下跌。比特币接近62,500美元的短期持有者均价线,反弹与BlackRock的资金流入有关。最新数据显示,BlackRock流入2,867枚比特币,抵消了其他ETF的流出。现货ETF持续大额流入,Cryptocond CEO表示,美国投资者的比特币持有量正重新占据主导地位。' x _0 r) N& ~4 d% p2 @4 [
' X0 @7 K) T, \8 ^( r, K; o3 N- S尽管9月7日曾有8天的资金流出,但随后大部分交易日保持资金流入。今天是周六,9月份即将结束,有580亿美元的比特币期权到期交割,预计将引发价格波动。关键支撑在59,000美元,卖方可能试图压低价格以减少损失。昨日,美国二季度GDP修正数据符合预期,为比特币上涨提供支持。1 D/ E9 M8 c2 X3 t$ i2 M% R
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过去一周,比特币在短期持有者均价线以上波动,但仍低于200日移动平均线,令期货市场参与者感到不安。市场面临向上突破65,000美元,迈向70,000美元,或跌破62,500美元,测试60,000-62,000美元支撑区的选择。最终,比特币选择了向上拉升。% ~; _7 O; p1 P. Q( b7 L/ \
, F' H2 I* \9 |BlackRock的资金流入恢复被视为积极信号,尽管其他现货ETF出现资金流出,但BlackRock的流入足以覆盖。昨日比特币未跌破62,500美元,避免了短期持有者陷入亏损并引发恐慌性抛售,这是我们希望看到的。4 F1 P7 @& p- Q# o- ?9 q4 v F
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推动比特币牛市的关键在于短期持有者成本线的支持。过去一年多,该线一直有效支撑比特币价格,尽管在2021年牛市结束后转为阻力。此外,全球流动性对比特币的影响不容忽视。Lin Alldon的报告显示,比特币与全球流动性的相关性高达83%,货币供应增加时比特币价格上涨的概率很高。+ a/ b( l: J5 g( c# f% v
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在主要央行降息并向市场注入流动性的背景下,夏季的低迷即将结束。FTX预计下月偿还债权人,部分资金将流入加密市场,对比特币也是积极的。历史数据显示,美国大选往往引发市场上涨,结合当前动态,我对第四季度走势持更乐观态度。$ g6 ?1 q8 P# b" V
/ e3 K. \' j2 K$ S8 w2 [以2024年为基准,比特币市场结构明显变化。比特币从技术先驱和少数鲸鱼的专属资产,逐渐吸引更多资本,尤其是大型金融机构的参与,尤其通过现货ETF重塑市场格局。然而,经济学家警告,美国经济衰退可能导致市场崩溃,消费者信心指数大幅下滑,预示经济将进入衰退。尽管近期GDP符合预期,缓解了一些忧虑,但美联储的降息预期仍在,市场预计将有更多流动性注入,包括美财政部可能的大规模国债发行。& g. H3 F7 W# s8 N! {* D& f4 z
$ o2 t Z) g4 x量化宽松(QE)的回归将大幅增加市场流动性,明显利好比特币,尽管短期内可能推高通胀。美元购买力持续下降,过去20年已失去78%的价值,而比特币却在上涨。从中长期来看,比特币是抗通胀的手段之一。4 g$ Z2 F: F( w
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BlackRock的比特币现货ETF获批后,更多机构将进入市场,进一步推动比特币扩张。经过长时间盘整,比特币在合理估值范围内获得支撑,未来可能会迎来下一波牛市。目前,出售风险比率指标显示,市场上愿意出售比特币的人不多。尽管比特币未能突破65,000美元,但接近70,000美元时行情将发生质变。我们需耐心持有,等待明年合适的时机。
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