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[lastpost] => 2691565 肖风：川普支持加密货币或成天朝数位资产市场复苏契机！ 1731734450 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币价格分析：在6.9万美元被拒绝后，BTC获得新ATH的机会有多大？（转）
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在最近的牛市中，比特币的价格尚未达到历史新高，因为卖家正在捍卫他们的最后一道防线。
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6 ?$ d+ o5 _" q D: G# N# \+ a* l技术分析
( k6 l, ]) Q" i- k. z" T5 ^By埃德里斯·德拉赫希（TradingRage）
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4 A7 ~; C8 W1 o6 k1 o2 a: w z每日图表
" |7 U1 P0 C, a2 x4 f, U: E/ `在日线图上，该资产最近反弹至6.4万美元水平和200天移动平均线之上，位于同一区域附近。这一上升趋势大大提高了比特币很快创下历史新高的可能性。
$ h& {, K5 L$ y6 b
. E( I* B. M9 s3 S: O$ m4 E然而，卖家很好地捍卫了6.9万美元的阻力位，因为价格正在下跌。如果出现大幅回调，可以重新测试200天移动平均线。- h3 \0 d* E: J }9 K" e9 E1 o
- Q4 T7 J7 I0 P( R! v: J% B8 b4小时图表( M! J, }' U* R0 P: ^1 G
基于价格走势和动量分析，4小时图显示了明显的看跌信号。市场最近在6.9万美元的关键阻力区形成了一个上升的楔形。然而，RSI与最近的价格高点显示出明显的看跌背离。( ^# E" R, s: ?
: N# G# K% D9 ^/ i4 ?这导致了模式的崩溃，这是一个典型的看跌反转信号。RSI也显示低于50%的值，这表明动量在4小时内看跌。然而，由于整体市场结构仍然看涨，这一举措很可能只是暂时的调整。
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情绪分析
- G8 E* n n- T- N) nBy埃德里斯·德拉赫希（TradingRage）+ Q: T( R: `7 f: m& ?5 |6 H( v
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比特币芝加哥商品交易所期权未平仓合约（叠加）8 ^, _8 \* k! R$ Z' J
在比特币最近的价格上涨中，投资者越来越乐观地认为，不久将出现新的历史新高和长期反弹。然而，这种乐观情绪有可能导致市场下跌。# P# t# `5 H& ?" O* \
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此图表显示了比特币芝加哥商品交易所期权未平仓合约（堆叠），它衡量了未平仓期权头寸的数量，包括看涨期权和看跌期权。显然，与牛市早期和接近市场底部的水平相比，期权未平仓合约（OI）总额显著下降，在牛市早期和市场底部，看涨期权和看跌期权都堆积得更重。 s7 R* R1 d# K* m: R5 U. D
$ p7 R5 l2 a# l* j# ROI的下降表明，投资者对比特币价格走势的不确定性减少了，导致他们采取了更具方向性的头寸，减少了通过期权进行对冲的需要。与此同时，对芝加哥商品交易所期货的开放兴趣日益增加，表明投资者对这一趋势越来越有信心，愿意采取更多杠杆头寸并承担更大的风险。不用说，杠杆是一把双刃剑。3 m; H4 S- L% ~, n0 F! X
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