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[体育菠菜心得方法] 大小球研究:大小球平局排除法
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平局排除法的理论来源于“双八预测平局法”,该方法是由英国人发明的一种预测平局概率的方法,因其需要统计不少于8场比赛的数据,因此要在联赛的后期才能发挥效用。 % j6 C# `9 l+ Y

; U2 k$ S5 e9 w* w    平局排除法
' E! c- U/ G! v* n: k    平局排除法的理论来源于“双八预测平局法”,该方法是由英国人发明的一种预测平局概率的方法,因其需要统计不少于8场比赛的数据,因此要在联赛的后期才能发挥效用。5 H4 H, a8 f& u
    在具体操作中,我们要完成三组统计数字:: o) k1 A) P1 U
    1、主队在过去8场主场比赛中平局的场数,和客队在过去8场客场比赛中平局的场数;(两者相加,得数A)' r; @1 }! y! G2 L8 t. }
    2、主队在过去8场主场比赛中没能进球的场数,和客队在过去8场客场比赛中没能进球的场数;(两者相加得B)
) _6 F7 D" ?& s3 J    3、主队在过去8场主场比赛中分出胜负的比赛场数,和客队在过去8场客场比赛中分出胜负的比赛场数;(两者相加得C)
" i9 V& v9 k. z" V2 A" p# b    然后,我们将B+C-A,最后的得数如果超过10,则出现平局的可能性就较小。举例说明如下。1 w. Y1 n/ j2 a! l
    摩纳哥2-0索肖2 R5 s- ^, {7 @- t
    主队最近8场平局场次:1场客队最近8场平局场次:2场A=1+2=3$ J$ h2 D! n. \/ }7 f
    主队最近8场无球场次:0场客队最近8场无球场次:1场B=0+1=1. V, [6 \: D1 ~( N& i; L/ j
    主队最近8场分胜负场次:7场客队最近8场分胜负场次6场C=7=6=13
* v, m$ C' |. J+ R- C    结论:1+13-3=11大于10平局概率较小
' \" z% Q+ `0 Y& u* u    桑德兰1-1斯托克城
: D/ N- j& s) A7 `' u    主队最近8场平局场次:3场客队最近8场平局场次:3场A=3=3=6
! K7 ]$ F1 M- c: T9 t; |* \    主队最近8场无球场次:1场客队最近8场无球场次:1场B=1+1=2
5 k9 W0 w9 U2 T$ W; S    主队最近8场分胜负场次:5场客队最近8场分胜负场次:5场C=5=5=10/ k) B1 i( S& [" }8 ]
    结论:2+10-6=6小于10平局概率较大5 C' w8 O/ C' \6 ?: w3 T; m
    建议对此方法与盘口分析结合,对上下盘有所倾向后,再结合双八测评法效果更为显著些。此方法实际应用在足彩的排除1或者单场走地大小球玩法较为适合,对于判断全场进球数或大小球玩法略有欠缺。
4 g7 U/ q# n! n, l
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2#
不知道这个方法管不管用啊。{:3_59:}
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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